February 2008 Wobbuffet Test
Wobbuffet was unbanned on the ladder on February 1st, 2008 for testing in standard. How did the metagame change in the first seven days of this test?
This is the weighted pokemon usage for the first week of February:
- Garchomp (11427408 points)
- Gengar (11187407 points)
- Blissey (9759206 points)
- Lucario (8499577 points)
- Gyarados (7439721 points)
- Bronzong (7414339 points)
- Heatran (7112049 points)
- Tyranitar (6710351 points)
- Metagross (6330605 points)
- Salamence (6195586 points)
- Infernape (6097207 points)
- Swampert (5506594 points)
- Gliscor (5117483 points)
- Weavile (5061008 points)
- Celebi (4918351 points)
- Forretress (4849703 points)
- Wobbuffet (4612211 points)
- Cresselia (4307827 points)
- Jirachi (4121256 points)
- Starmie (4118706 points)
- Skarmory (3942896 points)
- Breloom (3802787 points)
- Togekiss (3582710 points)
- Hippowdon (3534113 points)
- Magnezone (3457462 points)
- Heracross (3411194 points)
- Vaporeon (3155009 points)
- Dugtrio (3140207 points)
- Azelf (3077715 points)
- Snorlax (3073361 points)
- Spiritomb (3010266 points)
- Yanmega (2985854 points)
- Gallade (2930465 points)
- Deoxys-e (2835892 points)
- Scizor (2554038 points)
- Suicune (2526767 points)
- Porygonz (2526562 points)
- Dusknoir (2481084 points)
- Machamp (2468998 points)
- Milotic (2341208 points)
- Mismagius (2334990 points)
- Mamoswine (2169838 points)
- Zapdos (2166836 points)
- Electivire (2157771 points)
- Dragonite (2153972 points)
- Tentacruel (2111890 points)
- Ninjask (1998170 points)
- Kingdra (1951654 points)
- Crobat (1897211 points)
- Jolteon (1619760 points)
- Roserade (1571882 points)
- Donphan (1552064 points)
- Aerodactyl (1450381 points)
- Ambipom (1363119 points)
- Umbreon (1319191 points)
- Ludicolo (1297519 points)
- Slowbro (1296445 points)
- Alakazam (1292447 points)
- Weezing (1279886 points)
- Smeargle (1271859 points)
- Abomasnow (1271189 points)
- Raikou (1205522 points)
- Empoleon (1162051 points)
- Tangrowth (1159843 points)
- Cradily (1138375 points)
- Charizard (1124987 points)
- Froslass (1099156 points)
- Staraptor (1066505 points)
- Sceptile (1040791 points)
- Rhyperior (1021544 points)
- Arcanine (1006652 points)
- Feraligatr (983885 points)
- Clefable (976432 points)
- Claydol (851666 points)
- Uxie (847221 points)
- Typhlosion (841808 points)
- Poliwrath (791261 points)
- Gardevoir (747864 points)
- Hitmontop (706911 points)
- Toxicroak (695256 points)
- Medicham (680422 points)
- Steelix (663128 points)
- Azumarill (658402 points)
- Houndoom (643994 points)
- Honchkrow (630094 points)
- Miltank (624178 points)
- Marowak (611998 points)
- Linoone (611661 points)
- Shuckle (610550 points)
- Kabutops (561757 points)
- Porygon2 (526132 points)
- Floatzel (520078 points)
- Persian (515523 points)
- Absol (514507 points)
- Magmortar (493700 points)
- Glaceon (490014 points)
- Hariyama (488707 points)
- Rampardos (488250 points)
- Jumpluff (487318 points)
- Regirock (485080 points)
- Lapras (459929 points)
- Tauros (459152 points)
- Drapion (458421 points)
- Nidoking (452445 points)
- Registeel (452208 points)
- Flygon (438607 points)
- Walrein (434182 points)
- Sharpedo (431304 points)
- Drifblim (419907 points)
- Blastoise (384318 points)
- Shedinja (377284 points)
- Regice (371739 points)
- Ninetales (366590 points)
- Moltres (364555 points)
- Pikachu (363505 points)
- Torterra (358810 points)
- Shaymin (346397 points)
- Blaziken (346097 points)
- Espeon (342712 points)
- Mesprit (339537 points)
- Swellow (339465 points)
- Lanturn (336424 points)
- Gastrodon (325764 points)
- Hitmonlee (317616 points)
- Primeape (312930 points)
- Venusaur (310998 points)
- Relicanth (308982 points)
- Butterfree (294630 points)
- Cacturne (293782 points)
- Quagsire (292957 points)
- Slowking (284525 points)
- Rapidash (275062 points)
- Mr. Mime (268338 points)
- Exeggutor (268151 points)
- Ursaring (260451 points)
- Slaking (259171 points)
- Pinsir (254205 points)
- Lopunny (251950 points)
- Lickilicky (249352 points)
- Cloyster (241571 points)
- Ampharos (220823 points)
- Rotom (216230 points)
- Jynx (210844 points)
- Manectric (200189 points)
- Luxray (194534 points)
- Electrode (193918 points)
- Scyther (188664 points)
- Leafeon (183404 points)
- Sandslash (169885 points)
- Meganium (161135 points)
- Golduck (157964 points)
- Armaldo (157215 points)
- Aggron (156368 points)
- Omastar (154119 points)
- Venomoth (148421 points)
- Hypno (143181 points)
- Banette (140323 points)
- Wailord (134854 points)
- Raticate (129928 points)
- Parasect (121410 points)
- Octillery (118813 points)
- Muk (117901 points)
- Vileplume (109637 points)
- Magmar (106806 points)
- Articuno (103470 points)
- Qwilfish (102367 points)
- Hitmonchan (100980 points)
- Kingler (98945 points)
- Camerupt (98478 points)
- Ledian (95643 points)
- Rhydon (93063 points)
- Quilava (90684 points)
- Seviper (85988 points)
- Dodrio (85417 points)
- Zangoose (84555 points)
- Torkoal (83508 points)
- Entei (83175 points)
- Ariados (80619 points)
- Mudkip (77969 points)
- Mawile (77439 points)
- Gorebyss (75179 points)
- Kangaskhan (74344 points)
- Granbull (72048 points)
- Mantine (71035 points)
- Raichu (69141 points)
- Golem (68754 points)
- Regigigas (67357 points)
- Purugly (63912 points)
- Carnivine (61681 points)
- Vespiquen (59344 points)
- Dusclops (57896 points)
- Pachirisu (57759 points)
- Sneasel (57341 points)
- Xatu (55968 points)
- Onix (54890 points)
- Nidoqueen (52831 points)
- Noctowl (52173 points)
- Electabuzz (50883 points)
- Lairon (49821 points)
- Glalie (46681 points)
- Grumpig (46210 points)
- Seaking (45472 points)
- Poliwhirl (43791 points)
- Dewgong (40326 points)
- Politoed (39017 points)
- Solrock (39000 points)
- Delibird (38516 points)
- Pelipper (36420 points)
- Misdreavus (35953 points)
- Dunsparce (35882 points)
- Furret (35790 points)
- Pichu (35493 points)
- Wigglytuff (35441 points)
- Shiftry (35076 points)
- Altaria (34142 points)
- Haunter (33297 points)
- Probopass (32760 points)
- Lunatone (32649 points)
- Clefairy (32352 points)
- Kecleon (32238 points)
- Sableye (31875 points)
- Meditite (31238 points)
- Murkrow (27610 points)
- Bastiodon (27142 points)
- Rattata (25940 points)
- Masquerain (25063 points)
- Flareon (24103 points)
- Chansey (22569 points)
- Vigoroth (20544 points)
- Togetic (20273 points)
- Minun (20138 points)
- Marshtomp (18967 points)
- Sudowoodo (18679 points)
- Beedrill (17556 points)
- Clamperl (16818 points)
- Sunflora (16410 points)
- Castform (16134 points)
- Plusle (15467 points)
- Girafarig (14336 points)
- Stantler (14311 points)
- Skuntank (13956 points)
- Mightyena (13174 points)
- Magneton (13047 points)
- Mothim (13019 points)
- Magcargo (12477 points)
- Illumise (12329 points)
- Pidgeot (11494 points)
- Machoke (11249 points)
- Luvdisc (11203 points)
- Trapinch (11138 points)
- Sunkern (11103 points)
- Wynaut (10769 points)
- Huntail (10022 points)
- Machop (9736 points)
- Delcatty (9661 points)
- Porygon (9578 points)
- Squirtle (9361 points)
- Poliwag (9113 points)
- Dragonair (8980 points)
- Farfetch'd (8620 points)
- Duskull (8067 points)
- Chimecho (7635 points)
- Ralts (7487 points)
- Arbok (6885 points)
- Exploud (6832 points)
- Seadra (6774 points)
- Bellossom (6684 points)
- Wormadam-s (6525 points)
- Bulbasaur (6464 points)
- Phione (6325 points)
- Vulpix (6231 points)
- Lumineon (6112 points)
- Chatot (5995 points)
- Roselia (5578 points)
- Kricketune (5516 points)
- Magikarp (5187 points)
- Gligar (5031 points)
- Dustox (4590 points)
- Ivysaur (4578 points)
- Torchic (4420 points)
- Jigglypuff (4233 points)
- Crawdaunt (4155 points)
- Swalot (4155 points)
- Metapod (3550 points)
- Ditto (3483 points)
- Unown (2827 points)
- Yanma (2756 points)
- Igglybuff (2697 points)
- Fearow (2560 points)
- Feebas (2364 points)
- Piloswine (2231 points)
- Cherrim (2134 points)
- Chimchar (2080 points)
- Tropius (1866 points)
- Larvitar (1750 points)
- Hoppip (1411 points)
- Caterpie (1411 points)
- Bonsly (1286 points)
- Magby (1286 points)
- Baltoy (1286 points)
- Mime Jr. (1286 points)
- Munchlax (1286 points)
- Teddiursa (1204 points)
- Voltorb (1194 points)
- Gastly (1144 points)
- Grovyle (1073 points)
- Corphish (1042 points)
- Whiscash (968 points)
- Victreebel (688 points)
- Beautifly (530 points)
- Doduo (478 points)
- Chikorita (312 points)
- Treecko (303 points)
- Golbat (208 points)
- Croconaw (182 points)
- Slugma (180 points)
- Spoink (179 points)
- Eevee (76 points)
- Wormadam (20 points)
- Charmander (11 points)
- Azurill (10 points)
- Pidgeotto (8 points)
- Nuzleaf (7 points)
- Sandshrew (6 points)
- Spearow (5 points)
- Psyduck (5 points)
- Turtwig (4 points)
- Nidorino (4 points)
- Bayleef (4 points)
- Piplup (3 points)
- Croagunk (3 points)
- Buizel (3 points)
- Staravia (3 points)
- Anorith (3 points)
- Wartortle (3 points)
- Aipom (2 points)
- Nidoran-f (2 points)
- Wormadam-g (2 points)
- Wailmer (2 points)
- Finneon (2 points)
- Glameow (2 points)
- Togepi (2 points)
- Gulpin (2 points)
- Oddish (2 points)
- Spheal (2 points)
- Charmeleon (2 points)
- Buneary (2 points)
- Staryu (2 points)
- Cyndaquil (2 points)
- Abra (2 points)
- Pidgey (2 points)
- Kadabra (2 points)
- Gloom (2 points)
- Swablu (2 points)
- Ledyba (2 points)
- Cubone (1 points)
- Remoraid (1 points)
- Nincada (1 points)
- Shinx (1 points)
- Kakuna (1 points)
- Tentacool (1 points)
- Slowpoke (1 points)
- Shieldon (1 points)
- Nosepass (1 points)
- Cleffa (1 points)
- Nidorina (1 points)
- Weedle (1 points)
- Horsea (1 points)
- Goldeen (1 points)
- Nidoran-m (1 points)
- Corsola (1 points)
- Vibrava (1 points)
- Totodile (1 points)
- Drowzee (1 points)
- Skorupi (1 points)
Here is a graph of Wobbuffet's usage over the month, compared to several other pokemon. The y-axis gives the percent of weighted usage points for which the pokemon is responsible.
The uncertain direction of movement for Wobbuffet's curve suggests that he has not quite settled into his place in the metagame yet. Pokemon who have been around since the beginning such as Blissey show very little variation in this graph.
Of course, the question we are really interested in is: has Wobbuffet centralised the metagame? For the month of January 2008, the number of pokemon that comprised the top 75% of weighted usage points was 49. For the first week of February 2008, it was 48. This change is very insignificant, and it could even be random error, or minor metagame shifts unrelated to Wobbuffet. Clearly, there is little to no centralisation in pokemon used as a result of unbanning Wobbuffet. (I have promised to analyse the moves for centralisation, but at this point, I have not completed that yet.)
Technical restrictions prevent us from checking for centralisation in items. However, we did devise a very crude test to verify one particular anecdotal claim. Some people were complaining about how they would have to replace their Leftovers by Shed Shell to deal with Wobbuffet, and number of Leftovers activation per battle on the ladder is something we can measure, and it is illustrated on this graph:
This graph is entirely unremarkable, which suggests that the introduction of Wobbuffet into the metagame has not reduced the frequency of Leftovers.
With the lack of centralisation in pokemon, and the only somewhat common usage of Wobbuffet himself — combined with the downward trend in his usage — we feel that more time is warranted in this test. Wobbuffet is not being banned at this point.